Some trends and patterns we have noticed after 14 gameweeks…
The 2020/21 season is finally finding a rhythm, so it's time to take a closer look!
And just like that we are 14 gameweeks into the season. With the international break upon us, this feels like a good time to assess some trends and patterns we have noticed.
It has been a challenging campaign in a number of ways. Covid-19 postponements and absences have added another layer of complexity to making transfers, picking your team, selecting your captain etc.
Things are starting to settle, though, making assessment possible. Here are some trends from the first 14 gameweeks of the 2020/21 season.
Where are the goalscoring forwards?
It has been slim pickings so far this season in terms of goalscoring forwards. There have been some success stories. Kevin Nisbet, for instance, has settled in well at Hibernian following his summer move from Dunfermline Athletic with seven goals from 11 league appearances. His 5.0 points average makes him a valuable asset.
Dundee United’s Nicky Clark has also enjoyed a good season, with five goals in 14 appearances. Kilmarnock’s Nicke Kabamba’s four goals in 13 games also isn’t bad.
But in terms of the big name strikers at the top of the price list, there have been some underwhelming returns. Odsonne Edouard and Alfredo Morelos have yet to truly find their groove. Albian Ajeti has made a good start to life at Celtic, scoring five goals despite only averaging 47 minutes per game, but Neil Lennon has rotated the Swiss striker in and out of his side.
Much more was expected of Lawrence Shankland, the Dundee United striker who scored 24 goals in 26 Championship games last season. The 25-year-old has just two goals in nine appearances this season, averaging just 2.8 points per game.
Shankland is playing in a team that is struggling for firepower. Dundee United managed just one shot on target in their goalless draw against St Mirren in GW14. With Clark the one taking the penalties for the Tangerines, Shankland’s opportunities have been limited.
Better returns from one forward might be on the horizon, though, with Aberdeen’s Sam Cosgrove scoring in his first league start of the season against Hibernian on GW14. This is a striker who has a record of a goal every other game for the Dons and with Derek McInnes’ side a more effective attacking unit this season, Cosgrove’s £7.1m price tag could soon represent some value.
Can you afford not to have James Tavernier?
There’s no doubting who the biggest success story of the season so far has been. Quite frankly, James Tavernier’s numbers for Rangers have been ridiculous. For a defender to have eight goals from 14 games, on top of 12 clean sheets and six assists, is somewhat unprecedented. If Tavernier keeps this up, he’s on course for a 414-point season.
One thing we have noticed, however, is that Tavernier’s ownership percentage is moving slower than one might expect. The Rangers right back was owned by just over 25% of managers in GW1. His ownership now stands at 37%.
This is a significant rise, but consider the ownership rise enjoyed by other players (Lewis Ferguson has gone from 23% in GW1 to 44% in GW14, the most owned player in the game) and there is something to analyse.
From what we can tell, Tavernier’s price tag is restricting some managers from buying him. While Ferguson’s £4.4m price means he can be swapped in quite easily without too much fuss, Tavernier’s £6.6m price makes him more difficult to accommodate without Wildcards or points hits.
Where is the value in Celtic?
Celtic have been a difficult one to figure out this season. The champions started with a 5–1 mauling of Hamilton, with Edouard bagging a hat-trick with over 50% of Fantasy Football Scotland managers captaining the French forward.
Since then, the Hoops have been hot and cold, with Edouard scoring just once more in the league to date. Lennon has experimented with different formations, while Covid-19 absences have made picking consistent performances from Celtic a bit of a mine field.
Shane Duffy initially looked to be a must-have after a 21-point showing in the double gameweek of GW7, but the Republic of Ireland international has seen his ownership and price plummet after some shaky displays. At his peak, Duffy was worth £5.0m, but he has now fallen back to £4.7m.
Ryan Christie looks like a good differential, although his £7.7m price tag makes him a premium asset. The attacking midfielder is averaging 4.4 points per game and is still only owned by under 20% of managers.
In fact, there could be some real value in Celtic’s team over the winter. There are differentials to be found, with Edouard the only Celtic player currently in the list of the top 10 owned players in the game.
It might be advisable to jump on the Scott Bain train at this point. Lennon appears to have lost faith in summer signing Vasilis Barkas and Bain is available for £3.1m. While Celtic have struggled in defence recently, they are always likely to keep clean sheets from time to time and Bain’s price will rise as more managers see him as an option.
Under the radar picks
It’s around this time of the season that some under the radar picks start to emerge as they find form. One such player is Declan Gallagher. The Motherwell captain was one of the most popular picks for GW1, but a series of performance saw his ownership and price plummet.
In fact, Gallagher’s price was as low as £2.4m for GW11 as Motherwell struggled to even get a game due to Covid-19 call-offs. Those who stuck by the centre back are now being rewarded, though. Tavernier and Connor Goldson are the only defenders to have picked up more points over the last six games than Gallagher, with his price rebounding to £2.6m.
Staying in defence, Tommie Hoban is another who has emerged as a solid pick in recent gameweeks. The Aberdeen centre back is the highest scoring non-Celtic/Rangers defender with an average of 4.5 points per game. He has six clean sheets in 11 games and is only £3.3m.
While Callum Smith hasn’t grabbed many headlines this season, he is among the lowest priced forwards at £3.3m and features consistently for Hamilton. This makes him a good bench option. This is something a number of managers have picked up on, with Smith the most benched player so far this season.
Scott Arfield has surprised us in terms of how few managers have picked him up even as his form has picked up in recent gameweeks. The Rangers midfielder is still sitting at only 16% ownership despite averaging 4.7 points per game in his last six games.
Going forward…
As was always the intention, we are continuing to develop and work on making our app even better. This will include a new statistics section in the weeks to come, as well as a much more effective way of tracking past, present and future gameweek fixtures.
We are delighted with the reaction to the game since launching over the summer. This is a process and we will continue to work on making Fantasy Football Scotland the best it can be.
Team FFS